Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4273
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 4273 · SAN → SMF
departs 9:57 PM PT · arrives 11:39 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 33%
Thu 11/5 45%
Fri 11/6 47%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±4 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
59%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
59%
Yes 59%
No 41%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at SAN that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.77 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.