Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4282
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4282 · BNA → PHX
departs 4:02 PM CT · arrives 6:55 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
57%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed – in 24h
–
57%
Yes 57%
No 43%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
33%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from BNA are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.73 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 1.46 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.