Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4309
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 4309 · TPA → LAS
departs 7:51 PM ET · arrives 9:28 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±11 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
59%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
59%
Yes 59%
No 41%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.54 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.