Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4347
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4347 · SJC → SAN
departs 6:14 PM PT · arrives 7:48 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/31 37%
Sun 11/1
Tue 11/3 35%
Wed 11/4 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed – in 24h
–
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.44 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.