Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4396
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4396 · LAS → MSY
departs 3:55 PM PT · arrives 9:23 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 35%
Thu 11/5 42%
Fri 11/6 48%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
73%
chance · ±3 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
73%
Leave 15+ late
65%
Arrive 1h+ late
30%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
73%
Yes 73%
No 27%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 49% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
65%
Yes 65%
No 35%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
26%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
3pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.18 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.