Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4411
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4411 · DEN → EUG
departs 8:49 PM MT · arrives 10:31 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 36%
Tue 11/3 40%
Wed 11/4 33%
Thu 11/5 42%
Fri 11/6 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at EUG more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
59%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EUG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed – in 24h
–
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed – in 24h
–
59%
Yes 59%
No 41%
Arrive at EUG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EUG?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from DEN are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
DEN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 33 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EUG (destination)
Gusts 3 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.