Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4474 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

WN 4474 · LAS → SFO

departs 10:41 PM PT · arrives 12:19 AM PT

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±8 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.21 in

SFO (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4474 · LAS → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?