Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4484
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4484 · DEN → LAX
departs 4:11 PM MT · arrives 5:39 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±6 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
DEN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.29 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.