Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4488
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 4488 · LAS → SAN
departs 5:41 PM PT · arrives 6:57 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
73%
chance · ±4 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
73%
Leave 15+ late
65%
Arrive 1h+ late
39%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
73%
Yes 73%
No 27%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
65%
Yes 65%
No 35%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
26%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
30%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
5pm departures from LAS are often late
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.14 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.64 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.