Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4492
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 4492 · OAK → SAN
departs 4:21 PM PT · arrives 6:01 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at SAN that day
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.56 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.