Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 449
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 449 · AUS → SFO
departs 4:41 PM CT · arrives 6:22 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
63%
chance · ±10 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
63%
Leave 15+ late
65%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed – in 24h
–
63%
Yes 63%
No 37%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed – in 24h
–
65%
Yes 65%
No 35%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.