Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4504
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4504 · OKC → LAS
departs 9:05 PM CT · arrives 9:46 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 25%
Tue 11/3 24%
Wed 11/4 17%
Thu 11/5 32%
Fri 11/6 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±8 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave OKC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
OKC usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
OKC (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.