Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4509
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 4509 · STL → LAS
departs 9:46 PM CT · arrives 11:21 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 33%
Thu 11/5 34%
Fri 11/6 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±5 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
59%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
59%
Yes 59%
No 41%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
9pm departures from STL are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.03 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.21 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.