Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4529
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 4529 · LAS → SMF
departs 6:44 PM PT · arrives 8:21 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±7 pts
−12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
61%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
61%
Yes 61%
No 39%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.14 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.