Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4530
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4530 · DEN → BZN
departs 3:49 PM MT · arrives 5:33 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 28%
Thu 11/5 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at BZN more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BZN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at BZN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BZN?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at BZN that day
↓
BZN usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BZN (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 0.7 mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.