Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4543
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4543 · LAS → SNA
departs 3:50 PM PT · arrives 5:01 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
78%
chance · ±5 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
78%
Leave 15+ late
69%
Arrive 1h+ late
26%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
78%
Yes 78%
No 22%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
69%
Yes 69%
No 31%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
21%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
35%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.18 in
SNA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.34 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.