Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4575
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 4575 · MKE → PHX
departs 8:16 PM CT · arrives 11:01 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
68%
chance · ±10 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
68%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
68%
Yes 68%
No 32%
Leave MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MKE
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MKE (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip 1.64 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.