Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 458
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 458 · MCO → PHX
departs 8:48 PM ET · arrives 11:16 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1
Tue 11/3 22%
Wed 11/4 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
73%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
73%
Leave 15+ late
73%
Arrive 1h+ late
28%
Cancelled
22%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed – in 24h
–
73%
Yes 73%
No 27%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed – in 24h
–
73%
Yes 73%
No 27%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
21%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
28%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
16%
Cancelled
22%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.9 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
Gusts to 29 kt, 1.5 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 2,867 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 1.54 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 1.44 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.