Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4628
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4628 · AUS → STL
departs 4:59 PM CT · arrives 7:09 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 31%
Tue 11/3 30%
Wed 11/4 37%
Thu 11/5 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed – in 24h
–
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1.53333 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.