Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 464
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 464 · LAS → SBA
departs 2:31 PM PT · arrives 3:57 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
63%
chance · ±5 pts
−16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
63%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed −16 pts in 24h
−16 pts
63%
Yes 63%
No 37%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at SBA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to SBA?
On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
2pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.13 in
SBA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.