Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4658
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4658 · PHX → SJC
departs 5:21 PM MT · arrives 6:27 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/31 35%
Sun 11/1
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
63%
chance · ±8 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
63%
Leave 15+ late
72%
Arrive 1h+ late
23%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
63%
Yes 63%
No 37%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 55% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
72%
Yes 72%
No 28%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 1.46 in
SJC (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.