Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4674
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4674 · PHX → PIT
departs 4:16 PM MT · arrives 10:28 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
73%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed – in 24h
–
73%
Yes 73%
No 27%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
33%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from PHX are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PIT
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 1.46 in
PIT (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.