Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4689
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4689 · CLE → MCO
departs 6:31 PM ET · arrives 8:57 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave CLE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 28 kt, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLE
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
CLE (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.64 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.