Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4711
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4711 · MKE → BNA
departs 4:16 PM CT · arrives 5:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±3 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 29% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MKE
Weather at each end
MKE (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 1,867 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.73 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.