Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4712
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 4712 · PHX → ONT
departs 8:43 PM MT · arrives 9:07 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1
Tue 11/3 36%
Wed 11/4 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?
71%
chance · ±6 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
71%
Leave 15+ late
73%
Arrive 1h+ late
27%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
71%
Yes 71%
No 29%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 59% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
73%
Yes 73%
No 27%
Arrive at ONT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ONT?
On time or early
29%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
31%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from PHX are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip 1.64 in
ONT (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.28 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.