Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 472
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 472 · DEN → LGA
departs 5:06 PM MT · arrives 10:52 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±10 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
5pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 33 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.