Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4731
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4731 · MDW → SDF
departs 7:08 PM CT · arrives 9:26 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 94%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 22%
Tue 11/3 23%
Wed 11/4 25%
Thu 11/5 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±5 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
7pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
SDF usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
SDF (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,167 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.