Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4807
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4807 · AUS → LAX
departs 5:51 PM CT · arrives 7:02 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±8 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 55% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.26 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.