Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4812
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 4812 · STL → MCO
departs 8:05 PM CT · arrives 11:26 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 33%
Thu 11/5 36%
Fri 11/6 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 333 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.02 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.46 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.