Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4836
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 4836 · ELP → DAL
departs 8:01 PM MT · arrives 10:51 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 41%
Thu 11/5 47%
Fri 11/6 47%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±6 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into DAL at that hour are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at DAL that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.