Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4841
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4841 · PHX → SFO
departs 3:31 PM MT · arrives 4:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
68%
chance · ±10 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
68%
Leave 15+ late
71%
Arrive 1h+ late
31%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
68%
Yes 68%
No 32%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed – in 24h
–
71%
Yes 71%
No 29%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
31%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
18%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 1.46 in
SFO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.