Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 484
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 484 · SAN → ELP
departs 6:11 PM PT · arrives 9:07 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
62%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
62%
Yes 62%
No 38%
Arrive at ELP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ELP?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from SAN are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.64 in
ELP (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.