Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 484
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 484 · SJC → SAN
departs 4:00 PM PT · arrives 5:34 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 63%
Sat 10/31 33%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 38%
Tue 11/3 32%
Wed 11/4 29%
Thu 11/5 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
54%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
54%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed – in 24h
–
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at SAN that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.44 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.