Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4855
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4855 · MSY → SAN
departs 6:40 PM CT · arrives 8:38 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1
Tue 11/3 39%
Wed 11/4 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
66%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
66%
Leave 15+ late
58%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed – in 24h
–
66%
Yes 66%
No 34%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed – in 24h
–
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
33%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
35%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from MSY are often late
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.84 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.44 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.