Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4861
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 4861 · ECP → BNA
departs 6:11 PM CT · arrives 7:49 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±5 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 29% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave ECP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ECP that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
ECP usually runs smoothly
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ECP (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.52 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.