Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4874
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4874 · SRQ → IND
departs 5:56 PM ET · arrives 8:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.7 in of rain forecast at SRQ that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
IND usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SRQ (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.70 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 567 ft Visibility 0.9 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.