Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4878
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4878 · BNA → MYR
departs 8:10 PM CT · arrives 10:48 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 29%
Tue 11/3 29%
Wed 11/4 21%
Thu 11/5 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at MYR more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MYR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed – in 24h
–
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at MYR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MYR?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.73 in
MYR (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 8,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.