Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4913
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4913 · RDU → MCO
departs 7:50 PM ET · arrives 9:38 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1
Tue 11/3 21%
Wed 11/4 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, 1.4 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 2,867 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 1.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.