Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4921
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 4921 · SMF → SAN
departs 9:04 PM PT · arrives 10:46 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 8:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 35%
Tue 11/3 31%
Wed 11/4 33%
Thu 11/5 45%
Fri 11/6 48%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±2 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
57%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
57%
Yes 57%
No 43%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.64 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.