Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4953
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 4953 · RNO → LAS
departs 9:24 PM PT · arrives 10:48 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1
Tue 11/3 17%
Wed 11/4 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±7 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
↓
RNO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
RNO (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,100 ft Visibility 3.66667 mi Precip 0.09 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.