Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4973
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4973 · STL → JAX
departs 8:01 PM CT · arrives 11:08 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sat 10/31 28%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 30%
Thu 11/5 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, 0.6 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
JAX usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1.53333 mi Precip 0.08 in
JAX (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.56 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.