Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4984
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4984 · MCO → BDL
departs 8:38 PM ET · arrives 11:31 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/31 37%
Sun 11/1
Tue 11/3 30%
Wed 11/4 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at BDL more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
61%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
11%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
61%
Yes 61%
No 39%
Arrive at BDL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
How late will it get to BDL?
On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
11%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 29 kt, 1.5 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
8pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BDL
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 2,867 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 1.54 in
BDL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.