Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 498
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 498 · LAS → SAN
departs 2:36 PM PT · arrives 3:52 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
78%
chance · ±5 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
78%
Leave 15+ late
64%
Arrive 1h+ late
33%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
78%
Yes 78%
No 22%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
21%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.13 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.44 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.