Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4997
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4997 · LAX → SFO
departs 2:01 PM PT · arrives 3:27 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
78%
chance · ±8 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
78%
Leave 15+ late
61%
Arrive 1h+ late
36%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
78%
Yes 78%
No 22%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
61%
Yes 61%
No 39%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
22%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
27%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.29 in
SFO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.