Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 5009
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 5009 · BNA → TPA
departs 7:06 PM CT · arrives 9:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1
Thu 11/5 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
69%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
69%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
31%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
69%
Yes 69%
No 31%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
30%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.73 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,767 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.62 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.