Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 5030
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 5030 · HOU → AUS
departs 5:01 PM CT · arrives 6:03 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±4 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from HOU are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.