Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 512
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 512 · PHX → BUR
departs 3:46 PM MT · arrives 4:16 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
65%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
65%
Leave 15+ late
66%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
65%
Yes 65%
No 35%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed – in 24h
–
66%
Yes 66%
No 34%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
32%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from PHX are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 1.46 in
BUR (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.