WN 644 · BNA → MCO

departs 6:25 PM CT · arrives 9:21 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

78% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
21%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
14%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MCO that day

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility5.33333 mi Precip0.60 in

MCO (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.58 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 644 · BNA → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?