Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 647
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 647 · BNA → MDW
departs 8:03 PM CT · arrives 9:48 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 28%
Tue 11/3 23%
Wed 11/4 25%
Thu 11/5 28%
Fri 11/6 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from BNA are often late
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.32 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.