Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 653
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 653 · MCO → OKC
departs 6:31 PM ET · arrives 8:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
58%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Arrive at OKC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to OKC?
On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, 1.4 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
6pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.64 in
OKC (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.